Chicago Homicide Beyond the Citywide Average (Research Paper)

Abstract

Citywide homicide totals describe the scale of lethal violence but do not show how it is distributed across communities. This paper examines Chicago homicide victimizations from 2015 through 2025 and compares community-area rates for 2015-2019 and 2020-2024. A dated extraction of Chicago Police Department victim records contains 6,959 homicide victimizations. Annual counts rose from 494 in 2015 to 806 in 2021, then declined to 427 in 2025. Population-adjusted, period-matched comparisons nevertheless show persistent geographic disparities: nine community areas recorded rates at least three times the citywide baseline during 2020-2024. The analysis uses occurrence locations, official community-area boundaries, and CMAP population estimates derived from the American Community Survey. Because these population estimates cover five-year periods, the paper distinguishes annual homicide counts from pooled geographic rates. Findings support examining both citywide trends and local concentrations; they do not establish causes or individual residents’ probabilities of victimization. Population uncertainty, geographic allocation methods, and differences between official homicide datasets remain unresolved.